模糊故障树分析及其应用研究

基于某些实际情况下系统故障发生概率具有模糊性和不确定性的特点 ,笔者将模糊集理论引入故障树分析并针对自动化立体仓库的故障特征 ,对立体仓库各个环节发生故障时所遇到的各种模糊信息进行了科学的、定量的处理。实例证明 ,该方法是行之有效的 ;它能解决传统故障树分析不能处理同时存在随机不确定性和模糊不确定性的故障事件的问题     

Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

高速土工离心机温升的数值模拟

目的 数值计算高速土工离心机机室温度分布,研究不同真空度和侧壁温度对机室温升的影响,并为高速土工离心机提出温控方案。方法 针对一款在建的高速土工离心机,采用SRF方法和RNG k-ε湍流模型对其进行数值计算,对比不同转速下离心机的温升。针对加速度为1 500g的运行工况,对比不同机室压力和侧壁温度对机室温升的影响。结果 高速土工离心机以1 500g加速度运行时,机室最高温度可达83 ℃。运行压力从100 kPa降至3 kPa,机室最高温度下降约15 ℃,侧壁温度每降低10 ℃,机室最高温度降低约5 ℃。另外,真空度配合侧壁冷却无法满足散热要求时,可考虑在机室顶部靠侧壁布置面积不小于顶部面积1/4的冷却环。结论 利用CFD数值计算方法,定量得到了高速土工离心机机室温度随转速、真空度和侧壁温度的变化,为其冷却方案的设计提供了参考。     

水平管道内铝粉爆炸特性的试验研究

为研究铝粉在密闭空间内爆炸特性,降低其爆炸造成的损害,利用自行设计的水平管道式可燃气体-粉尘爆炸装置,在室温下对粒度为6～8μm,9～12μm,15～17μm的铝粉在100～800 g/m3浓度范围内的爆炸特性进行试验研究。结果表明:铝粉在浓度为600 g/m3时,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率最大,爆炸时间最小;铝粉浓度较低时,由于氧气充足,随着铝粉浓度增大,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率增大,爆炸时间减小;当铝粉浓度超过600 g/m3,受到氧气浓度限制,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率随浓度增大而减小,爆炸时间增大;相同浓度的铝粉,粒度越小,最大爆炸压力和最大压力上升速率越大,爆炸时间越小。粒度越小的铝粉,爆炸的可能性和危险性越大。     

Explosibility of micron- and nano-size titanium powders

Explosibility of micron- and nano-titanium was determined and compared according to explosion severity and likelihood using standard dust explosion equipment. ASTM methods were followed using a Siwek 20-L explosion chamber, MIKE 3 apparatus and BAM oven. The explosibility parameters investigated for both size ranges of titanium include explosion severity (maximum explosion pressure (P_max) and size-normalized maximum rate of pressure rise (K_St)) and explosion likelihood (minimum explosible concentration (MEC), minimum ignition energy (MIE) and minimum ignition temperature (MIT)). Titanium particle sizes were ?100 mesh (<150 μm), ?325 mesh (<45 μm), ≤20 μm, 150 nm, 60–80 nm, and 40–60 nm. The results show a significant increase in explosion severity as the particle size decreases from ?100 mesh with an apparent plateau being reached at ?325 mesh and ≤20 μm. Micron-size explosion severity could not be compared with that for nano-titanium due to pre-ignition of the nano-powder in the 20-L chamber. The likelihood of an explosion increases significantly as the particle size decreases into the nano range. Nano-titanium is very sensitive and can self-ignite under the appropriate conditions. The explosive properties of the nano-titanium can be suppressed by adding nano-titanium dioxide to the dust mixture. Safety precautions and procedures for the nano-titanium are also discussed.     

A review on the generation, determination and mitigation of Urban Heat Island

Urban Heat Island （UHI） is considered as one of the major problems in the 21st century posed to human beings as a result of urbanization and industrialization of human civilization. The large amount of heat generated from urban structures, as they consume and re-radiate solar radiations, and from the anthropogenic heat sources are the main causes of UHI. The two heat sources increase the temperatures of an urban area as compared to its surroundings, which is known as Urban Heat Island Intensity （UHII）. The problem is even worse in cities or metropolises with large population and extensive economic activities. The estimated three billion people living in the urban areas in the world are directly exposed to the problem, which will be increased significantly in the near future. Due to the severity of the problem, vast research effort has been dedicated and a wide range of literature is available for the subject. The literature available in this area includes the latest research approaches, concepts, methodologies, latest investigation tools and mitigation measures. This study was carded out to review and summarize this research area through an investigation of the most important feature of UHI. It was concluded that the heat re-radiated by the urban structures plays the most important role which should be investigated in details to study urban heating especially the UHI. It was also concluded that the future research should be focused on design and planning parameters for reducing the effects of urban heat island and ultimately living in a better environment.     

过载、破损及老化风险场景的单芯PVC电缆温升研究*

为研究多风险耦合场景下单芯PVC电缆温升问题,基于传热学理论建立电缆温升方程及热平衡函数,设计过载、破损和老化风险场景的PVC电缆温升试验,测量并分析电缆温升趋势,提出电缆温升数据的稳健拟合方法,并拟合过载、破损-过载、老化-过载及破损-老化-过载组合风险耦合场景下的电缆平衡温升方程。研究结果表明:过载是电缆温升的主要风险因素,破损和老化风险可通过改变传热条件进一步影响电缆温升,量化了耦合风险下单芯PVC电缆的温升规律。研究结果可为电缆内因火灾预警和防控提供参考。     

General plume dispersion model (GPDM) for point source emission

Gaussian-based dispersion models are widely used to estimate local pollution levels. The accuracy of such models depends on stability classification schemes as well as plume rise equations. A general plume dispersion model (GPDM) for a point source emission, based on Gaussian plume dispersion equation, was developed. The program complex was developed using Java and Visual basic tools. It has the flexibility of using five kinds of stability classification schemes, i.e., Lapse Rate, Pasquill–Gifford (PG), Turner, σ–θ and Richardson number. It also has the option of using two types of plume rise formulations – Briggs and Holland’s. The model, applicable for both rural and urban roughness conditions, uses meteorological and emission data as its input parameters, and calculates concentrations of pollutant at the center of each cell in a predefined grid area with respect to the given source location. Its performance was tested by comparing with 4-h average field data of continuous releases of SO₂ from Dadri thermal power plant (Uttar Pradesh, India). Results showed that the Turner scheme used with Holland’s equation gives the best outcome having a degree of agreement (d) of 0.522.     

Vermetid reefs in the Mediterranean Sea as archives of sea-level and surface temperature changes

Vermetid reefs are among the most important bioconstructions in the Mediterranean Sea, with a distribution restricted to the warmest part of the basin. Their structure, and vertical and geographical distribution make them good biological indicators of changes in sea level and sea-surface temperature over the last two millennia.